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Colombia: Social vulnerability and integrated risk

Data overview

The social vulnerability indicators for Colombia are spread over the themes of population, economy, infrastructure, education,and health. The dataset is composed of 60 indicators at level P3 of subnational geographic organization given in 1114 subdivisions distributed into parishes known in Colombia as: Municipios. The chart below explains the percentage of variables in the total dataset under each specific main theme.

Figure 1

The entire 60 indicators were statistically analyzed. In addition to a harmonized dataset, a reduction of the socio-economic indicators into a smaller parsimonious set of variables that best represent social and economic vulnerability cluster analysis was performed. The multi-variable statistical analysis was utilized to provide a statistical basis for the choice of indicators.

Table 1

Final variable selection

A correlation analysis was performed on the above variables (table 1). Highly correlated variables (Spearman’s R>0.700) were eliminated from further consideration to avoid subjectively choosing one variable over another for inclusion in subsequent analyses. The correlation analysis is useful in reducing the data to a set of variables that are parsimonious and acceptable to represent the social vulnerability of the Colombian population.
Table 2

Social Vulnerability components

The social vulnerability index for Colombia is composed by the subcomponents of population, economy, infrastructure, access to education and health. The spatial distribution of the population subcomponent (figure 1A) shows high levels of social vulnerability in the rural areas across the country. Whereas, the economy subcomponent (figure 2B) shows high levels of social vulnerability in the central part of the country, along the andes mountains range where major urban and economic centers e.g. Bogota, Medellin, Cali, etc. The subcomponent infrastructure (figure 1C) makes reference to the access to basic services i.e water, electricity, sewage; the spatial distribution for this component in Colombia reveals high levels of social vulnerability in the rural areas. The five components of social vulnerability (population, economy, education, infrastructure and health) are subsequently summed and normalized to produce the final social vulnerability score.

Figure 1

Integrated Risk

The integrated risk for Colombia is obtained from combining the social vulnerability and the risk average annual losses indexes. High integrated risk can be understood as those subnational areas experiencing high seismicity, high physical earthquake risk, and high levels of social vulnerability. The spatial distribution shows the levels of social vulnerability across Colombia (figure 2A). Major urban centres i.e Bogota, Medellin, Cali, remain at low to moderate social vulnerability, the rural areas across the country experience moderate to high levels of vulnerability due to the lack of access to basic services, lifelines, sewage system, education access, and healthcare. The Colombia high seismicity risk zone is along the west part of the country into the Andes mountains range; the spatial distribution of the physical risk (figure 2B) shows high levels of risk in the parishes along the pacific coast, in the Andes major cities and surrounding parishes experience high levels of risk which would result in high losses in the event of an earthquake. In consequence, the integrated risk (figure 2C) shows moderate to high levels of risk along the high seismicity zones in Colombia at both urban and rural areas; rural areas experiencing high levels of social vulnerability but not located in the high seismicity risk zones remain low to moderate risk.

Figure 2

  • colombia.1475759275.txt.gz
  • Last modified: 2016/10/06 15:07
  • by Miguel Toquica